ArticlesGlobal Energy Transition Outlook 2024

Global Energy Transition Outlook 2024

Recently at Ducker Carlisle, many clients have asked us for assistance in understanding, navigating, and ultimately devising a strategy around the ongoing energy transition. As such, we have consolidated our views and persistent market themes into an annual outlook. This global energy outlook captures the trends in the energy transition, forecasts what the future may look like, identifies the keys to realizing this future, and raises questions business leaders must address to navigate their companies through this transition

Download 2024 Outlook Here

Through our extensive research and analysis, we can make the following predictions that by 2030:

• The global energy mix will continue to become more and more electrified, as electric power for mobility and other applications crowds out traditional liquid and gaseous fuels
• At least half (~50%+) of global electricity generation will be from clean sources
• Solar PV and Wind will be the predominant modes of clean electricity generation as their economics continue to improve; the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of both Solar PV and Wind installations will be less than 50% of the LCOE of natural gas turbine installation.
• Solar PV will account for at least 15% of global electricity generation, up from 4% in 2022, a 20% CAGR
• For Solar PV, utility scale installations will dominate given their scale and economic advantages; 55% of global solar PV electricity generation will come from utility scale installations
• For Wind, onshore installations will dominate with over 75% of new installed capacity
• The Asia-Pacific region, and especially China, will lead the way in clean electricity development, especially in solar PV
• Over 50% of global clean electricity generation, and over 60% of solar PV electricity generation, will be in the Asia-Pacific Region; China alone will account for over 1/3rd of global clean energy and solar PV electricity generation
• Wind will account for at least 15% of global electricity generation, up from 7% in 2022, a 12% CAGR

Given these predictions, how is your company positioned to either take advantage of or to mitigate the risks from this ongoing, accelerating transition? We have identified key questions business leaders must evaluate if your company finds itself affected by this transition, whether mired in the middle of it, or just affected on the periphery:

Further, there will be 3 critical technological advances which must occur to realize this expected transition: 1) Battery Storage, 2) Grid Capacity & Resiliency, 3) Energy Management. Are there opportunities of which your company can take advantage to realize step-change growth?

Our outlook serves as a condensed yet comprehensive summary, offering insights applicable to various industries, markets, and businesses. However, should you seek a more detailed analysis or customized scenarios tailored to your specific business needs, our team at Ducker Carlisle is ready to assist. We’re excited to collaborate with you, crafting personalized outlooks and helping identify strategic pathways for your success. Click here to learn more and connect with our team.